March Madness is an exhilarating time for basketball fans, but for bettors and handicappers it’s a matter of separating emotion from strategy. Picking March Madness upsets can feel like roulette to some people, but seasoned sportsbooks know how to find value hidden in seemingly bizarre upsets the average fan can’t even imagine. Whether you’re putting your money on specific teams or just reveling in the chaos of upsets, knowing the ins and outs of how to break down the tournament can help you make informed decisions.
How to Handicapping March Madness Upsets
Choosing which ones to upset in the 2025 NCAA tournament isn’t a matter of luck, it’s about analyzing matchups, creating team dynamics and following the money. Though there’s no failsafe formula, considering these key steps can lead to discovering teams who are built to surprise a higher-seed opponent.
Team Matchups and Styles of Play Each team has its own style of play, and how those styles match up against each other is an important factor. Some teams are built for fast-paced, run ’n’ gun games, while others are built for knockdown, drag-out defensive tussles. When lower-seeded teams can exploit weaknesses in their higher-seeded opponents’ style of play, upsets are more likely.
Pay Attention to Power Ratings A professional handicapper will pay attention to power ratings where teams are ranked on their overall strength. The objective look at how teams compare in terms of scoring, defense and rebounding is a useful tool for trying to predict outcomes. Watch out for teams that have great power ratings but get overlooked because of seeding.
Line Movement and Betting Public One of the key indicators for handicappers is tracking line movement. If the point spread shifts dramatically, it’s usually because wise guys are betting on one side. On the other hand, the rush of public money pouring in on a favorite can sometimes be a tell that bettors have found favorable odds on that underdog should the spread appear overly lopsided.
Best Signs That Upsets Are Possible
There’s no sure way to predict March Madness upsets, but here’s a few signs that an underdog might be poised to pull off a surprising victory:
Players and Senior Leadership: Teams that boast a higher number of veteran players/leaders who have experience playing within the tournament are usually more poise when in high-stake moments.
Strong Defense: A good defense can stymie the rhythm of a more talented, offensively oriented team. Target teams that are good at guarding the perimeter or creating turnovers.
Momentum: Teams that ride into the tournament on a hot streak, winning several games in a row, might have the confidence and chemistry needed to pull an upset on a higher-seeded opponent.
Coach Factor: Having a veteran coach who is used to winning these games can be the difference in tightly contested games. Coaching changes and game plan are usually the difference in upsets.
Teams to Watch as Potential Underdogs
Mid-Major Schools: It might not get the national spotlight, but during March Madness they can be deadly. They often play like they have a chip on their shoulder, driven to show their stuff against more recognizable teams.
Versatile Players: The beauty of March Madness is that anything is possible, especially if a team has one standout player who can take over a game. Seek Out Teams With Superstars Who Come Up Big In The Clutch
Defensive-Minded Teams: This is a tournament whose games tend, for the most part, to be more about grit than glamor. A team with a staunch defensive approach could outlast a higher-seeded opponent in a low-scoring, grind-it-out contest.
See also: A Quick Guide to Betting on March Madness
March Madness is famed for upsets, but successful betting takes more than praying for pandemonium. However, by studying matchups, following betting trends, and utilizing certain key predictors of possible upsets, you can outperform the casual bettor. Be it a little school stepping up to the plate or a longtime power getting sent home early, March Madness upsets are a signature of the tournament and if you play your cards right, you can use them to your advantage.
March Madness upsets are among the most exhilarating aspects of the NCAA tournament, and with careful handicapping, you can get an early edge. Happy betting!
